We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY thanks to the iPhone 11’s replacement demand boosted by more affordable prices and iPhone SE2’s shipments starting in 1Q20. We estimate that iPhone shipment in 1Q20 will be 45–50mn units (iPhone 11 Pro series and iPhone 11 to be 13–15 and 22–24mn units, respectively), which is better than around 42mn units of iPhone shipments in 1Q19 (iPhone XS series and iPhone XR to be around 12 and 14mn units, respectively).
iPhone 11 shipments are expected to reach 70 to 75 million units this year with supply constraints limiting that number somewhat. iPhone 11 Pro shipments are predicted at 37-40 million units and iPhone 11 shipments are predicted at 36 to 40 million units. “Increased production difficulties” of specific components will purportedly result in lower iPhone 11 Pro sales this holiday quarter than iPhone XS sales in the same quarter a year ago.